Jeff Wells writes a superb analysis of the Oscar best pic showdown between “Dreamgirls” and “Flags of Our Fathers” as weighed within the context of the studio politics between Paramount, DreamWorks and Warner Bros. plus the colorful personalities involved. CLICK HERE! Not only does he argue well that “Dreamgirls” may be considered the frontrunner, but there are other additional factors to bolster that point. “Dreamgirls” will probably lead with the most nominations (best pic, direction, screenplay, song, costumes, art direction, editing, cinematography, sound, score, supporting actress Jennifer Hudson plus possible bids for Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, Danny Glover and even Beyonce), which usually hails the top winner.

Helmer Bill Condon is its other big plus. Academy voters usually choose best pics based upon who directs them. Condon is a beloved industry insider at the peak of his powers. He won the Oscar for penning “Gods and Monsters” and revitalized the American musical by bringing Broadway’s “Chicago” so successfully to the screen where it won best picture. Other tuners by other pros followed and failed (”Rent,” “The Producers”). Now Condon’s back with another Broadway songfest, actually a better one, come to think of it, with music having more heart and soul. And he’s directing it that’s a major event, considering he wasn’t at the “Chicago” helm (Rob Marshall presided). He directed “Kinsey” two years ago, but it failed to break into the Oscars in a big way despite being a superb film. I blame the title, which was rather, well, limp. Had it been sexier, the same movie would’ve titillated academy members more. This year Condon can see his ultimate Oscar dream come true with “Dreamgirls.”

- The Envelope